HDB Resale Prices Fell Again, Even After the 15-Month Wait-Out Was Scrapped

Remember July? The government finally removed the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners buying HDB resale flats. Many people (me included, a little) expected the cash-rich downgraders to rush in and push resale prices up again.

Well. The Q3 numbers are out.

HDB resale prices fell again. Third quarter in a row. 😦

So what happened? Did the policy not work? Or was everybody looking at the wrong thing all along? Let me go through the numbers first, then I'll tell you what I think is really going on, and what it means if you are planning to sell your flat and upgrade.

What the Q3 2026 Numbers Actually Say

According to HDB's data released on 23 October, the Resale Price Index slipped 0.1% in Q3 2026. It fell 0.1% in Q1 (the first drop in close to seven years) and 0.3% in Q2.

Small numbers, yes. But three in a row is three in a row.

Now here's the interesting part. Volume went up, not down.

Huttons said this is the highest number of 5-room and larger flats sold since Q3 2022. That's the quarter the wait-out period was introduced, by the way. 😄

And it's not falling everywhere. Only 9 out of 26 towns saw prices drop. The biggest falls were the Central Area (-8.4%), Ang Mo Kio (-4.7%) and Jurong East (-4.3%).

So more flats sold, more big flats sold, more million-dollar flats sold... and prices still went down a bit. Strange, right? HDB is such an amazing mystery market, sometimes.... 😅

So Why Didn't Removing the Wait-Out Push Prices Up?

HDB itself said it has not seen a significant increase in the prices, or the number, of resale flats bought by private property downgraders since 28 July. Read that line again slowly.

Here's my reading of why.

One. The downgraders came, but they are a small crowd. Yes, they showed up. The jump in 5-room and executive flats tells you that. (Before July, buyers aged 55 and above were already exempted if they bought a 4-room or smaller flat. So the people who were really "freed" were the ones wanting the bigger flats.) But a few hundred extra buyers in one segment cannot lift a market of 7,000+ deals a quarter. They moved the volume, not the index.

Two. There are simply more flats around. About 13,480 flats reach their Minimum Occupation Period this year. Many of those owners want to sell and move on. More sellers, same buyers... you know how this ends. If you're not sure what MOP means, I explained the MOP rules here.

Three. BTO is fighting back. HDB will launch close to 8,000 flats in November across Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun. On top of that, the income ceiling for BTO went up to $16,000 at the Rally. Some families who would have paid a big cash-over-valuation for a resale flat will now just ballot and wait.

Four. Buyers are doing their homework. After years of prices only going up, buyers now have choice. They compare, they negotiate, they walk away. No more "just buy first, think later".

SO THE POLICY DIDN'T FAIL LAH. IT JUST WASN'T THE THING HOLDING PRICES UP. 🙄

The government said itself that it removed the rule because resale prices had already moderated. In other words, they waited until it was safe. And it was safe.

They know what they are doing lah.. sometimes we scold them but they have brains ok... scholars ok 😃

Wait... Prices Fell but Million-Dollar Flats Hit a Record?

Yes. Both are true at the same time, and this confuses a lot of people.

596 flats sold for $1 million or more in Q3. That's 1,497 for the first nine months of 2026. It was pointed out that about half of these were flats aged 15 years or younger. And 26 flats went for $1.5 million and above, mostly in Queenstown, Bishan, Toa Payoh, Clementi and the Central Area.

The index is an average. It hides a two-speed HDB market:

• Young, big, well-located flats in mature towns: still very much in demand. Sellers there are not cutting prices. And million dollar flats are there to stay.... OUCH.....
• Older flats, flats with shorter leases, flats in towns with lots of MOP supply: this is where the softness is....

So if your neighbour tells you "HDB prices are dropping", ask him: which HDB? 😆

What This Means If You Are Selling Your Flat to Upgrade

This is the part I really want HDB upgraders to read.

While HDB resale prices dipped 0.1% in Q3, private home prices went up 1.4%. Suburban (OCR) condo prices rose 2.3%. Landed went up 2.9%.

The gap between your flat and the condo you want is getting wider, not narrower.

I meet many upgraders who say, "Patrick, I wait one more year for my flat price to go up, then I sell." I understand the thinking. But look at the numbers above. If your flat stays flat (pun intended 😄) and the condo goes up 4 to 5% a year, waiting costs you money. Every quarter.

What I would do now:

1. Price your flat to sell, not to dream. Volume is high, so buyers are out there. But they compare. An over-priced listing just sits... and sits... and sits.. and sits... and sits.. (okay, okay, you get the idea..).
2. Work out your numbers before you visit any showflat. Your sale proceeds, CPF refund, and how much the bank will actually lend you. If you're a second-timer, don't forget the resale levy if you ever go back to BTO (don't lah).
3. Shortlist the condo first, then time the sale. Not the other way round.

If you're in Jurong East and wondering why your neighbour's flat went for less than expected... Lucerne Grand is right there in Jurong Lake District. Just saying.

And if you're in the Bishan, Toa Payoh or Ang Mo Kio belt, the new Thomson Reserve is launching now. Big flat sellers in the north-central towns are the exact people this kind of project is built for.

For those holding one of those million-dollar flats in Queenstown or Bishan, you're in a strong position. Think Dunearn House.....

MUST SELL WHILE YOUR FLAT IS STILL IN THE "HOT" CATEGORY HOR!! 🤩

My Take

This is not a crash. Prices have dropped 0.1%, 0.3% and 0.1% in three quarters. That's a market catching its breath after years of running, not a market falling off a cliff.

But it is also not going back to the 2021 to 2023 days of HDB prices jumping every quarter. With MOP supply, a big BTO pipeline and higher BTO income ceilings, my base case is that HDB resale stays flat-ish into 2027, with the good flats holding up and the average ones softening.

The 15-month wait-out was never the main thing holding prices up. Removing it gave private owners back their choice. That's all. And honestly, that's a good thing.

So if you're waiting for your flat to "recover" before you upgrade... you may be waiting for something that is not coming back anytime soon. Meanwhile the condo you want keeps moving.

Disclosure: I'm a property agent and I sell new launches, so yes, I have an interest when I tell upgraders not to wait. But the numbers are the numbers. Check them yourself.

The flat stays flat. The condo doesn't. 😦